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Major African Mobile Markets: Future Growth Prospects 2006-2011  

Key Market - Tunisia


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Industry Overview

Mobile Market

Future Outlook
Figure 1: Tunisia - Mobile Subscribers and Penetration (2002-2011)
Figure 2: Tunisia - Market Share of Mobile Network Operators (June 2005)
Figure 3: Tunisiana - Ownership Structure
Table 1: Tunisia - Economic Parameters (2004)
Table 2: Tunisia - Telecom Industry Snapshot
Table 3: Tunisia - Mobile Subscribers (2002-2011, In Million)
Table 4: Tunisiana - Key Performance Indicators (FY end-December 2004)

The Republic of Tunisia is a developing nation, with agriculture, mining, manufacturing and tourism forming the most important sectors. In 2004, the services sector, which includes banking and financial services, besides tourism, accounted for approximately 53 percent of the country's GDP. The economy was earlier primarily dependent on agriculture but has now strengthened its industrial segment, which constituted approximately 32 percent of the country's GDP in 2004.

The government has played an important role in encouraging competition in business, introducing reforms, initiating privatisation, etc., thus making it attractive for foreign investments and also driving the growth of the economy. Another important step in its development has been the signing of free trade agreement with the EU, thus enhancing its industrial base and exposing the economy to international competition. Various factors, such as privatisation, better rains in 2003 and 2004 after the drought in 2002, liberalisation to encourage foreign investments, reduction in tariffs, etc., have been the driving forces in the country's development in recent years.

A new telecom regulatory framework introduced in 2001 ushered in the growth of the telecom sector in Tunisia, and the market has been growing at a steady pace since then.

Table 1 provides an overview of the country's key economic parameters.

Table 1: Tunisia - Economic Parameters (2004)


Telecom Industry Overview

Tunisia's telecom market experienced significant growth in both fixed-line and mobile services sectors, though mobile growth far outstripped growth in fixed telephony. The number of fixed-line subscribers grew at a CAGR of 7.2 percent during 1999-2004, while the number of cellular subscribers grew at a CAGR of 144 percent during the same period.

The government also started the liberalisation process in August 2005, in order to encourage development of the sector, and it is anticipated that the telecom sector will benefit greatly from the proposed partial privatisation of the government-owned incumbent telecom operator, Tunisie Telecom, which is the only fixed-line service provider in the country.

Table 2 provides an overview of country's key indicators in the telecom sector.

Table 2: Tunisia - Telecom Industry Snapshot


Mobile Market

Tunisia has one of the more developed mobile markets in Africa as indicated by the high level of mobile penetration, which has exceeded 40 percent.

At present there are two mobile operators in the country - Tunisie Telecom and Tunisiana, and both operate a GSM network, the oldest being Tunisie Telecom who launched the first GSM network in Tunisia in 1998. As a state-owned utility, until 2001 Tunisie Telecom enjoyed being the only operator in a monopoly market, but competition was finally introduced in 2002 by the launch of mobile services from Tunisiana, and in this more competitive market prices came down stimulating growth.

2.5G (GPRS and EDGE)-based services are also planned, by both operators, though these are currently under deployment and no specific launch date has been announced yet by either player. 3G services were introduced in the country in 2005, though only on a trial basis.

Market Size

The total number of mobile subscribers in Tunisia at the end of June 2005 was approximately 4.45 million, with a corresponding mobile penetration rate of 44.4 percent.

The total number of subscribers has grown quite rapidly increasing from 1.90 million at the end of 2003 to 3.70 million at the end of 2004. During the same period, the mobile penetration rate increased from approximately 19.4 percent to 37.5 percent.

The country's mobile subscriber base is expected to increase at a CAGR of approximately 9.6 percent during 2005-2011, resulting in a mobile subscriber base of 9.13 million and a penetration of 85.5 percent in 2011. 3G subscribers are expected to account for approximately 11 percent of the total subscribers in 2011.

Table 3, below, shows the forecast for mobile subscribers in Tunisia for the 10-year period from 2002 to 2011.

Table 3: Tunisia - Mobile Subscribers (2002-2011, In Million)


Source: Portio Research Ltd.

Figure 1 illustrates the trends and forecasts for mobile subscribers and penetration rate in Tunisia for the 10-year period from 2002 to 2011.

Figure 1: Tunisia - Mobile Subscribers and Penetration (2002-2011)


Source: Portio Research Ltd.

Mobile Network Operators

There are two mobile network operators in Tunisia - Tunisie Telecom and Tunisiana. Tunisie Telecom was the leading operator with a market share of 65 percent in June 2005.

Figure 2 illustrates the market share of the operators in terms of their subscriber base for June 2005.

Figure 2: Tunisia - Market Share of Mobile Network Operators (June 2005)


Source: Company Reports

The two operators currently providing mobile services in Tunisia are discussed below.

Tunisie Telecom

Tunisie Telecom was the first mobile operator in Tunisia and is completely owned by the Tunisian government. The government plans to sell a 35 percent stake in the operator in order to encourage technological advancements, growth and competition.

The government plans to sell a 35 percent stake in Tunisie Telecom in order to encourage growth and competition.

The operator's GSM network covers 100 percent of the urban population and 85 percent of the rural population. The operator also provides value-added services, such as SMS, voice messaging, etc. Tunisie Telecom had 2.88 million mobile subscribers as on 30th June 2005.

Tunisiana

Tunisiana launched its mobile services in December 2002. The operator's total network coverage extends to 99 percent of the total population in 2005. The operator also provides value-added services, such as voicemail, SMS and fax service.

The major shareholders of the operator are Orascom Telecom and Wataniya Telecom.

Figure 3 gives the latest ownership structure of the operator .

Figure 3: Tunisiana - Ownership Structure


Source: Company Reports

Table 4 provides an overview of the operator's key performance indicators.

Table 4: Tunisiana - Key Performance Indicators (FY end-December 2004)


Source: Company Reports

Recent Developments

Technology Innovations and New Services

  • In June 2004, the Tunisian Ministry of Post and Telecommunications signed a contract with Huawei to deploy a trial 3G network in the country. The 3G network is proposed to be set up in order to provide services to the delegates gathering for the World Summit on the Information Society (WSIS), to be organised by the ITU in November 2005. The network would cover the two cities of Tunis and Hammamet, where the summit is to be held.
  • Huawei made the first successful WCDMA call in September 2004, ahead of the 3G services to be provided in the WSIS. The success of this trial call marks the first of its kind and the first successful 3G/UMTS call in Africa.

    Regulatory Developments

  • · In 2005, the Tunisian government has proposed plans to partially privatise the publicly-held mobile operator, Tunisie Télécom. The government plans to sell 35 percent stake in Société Nationale des Télécommunications (Tunisie Télécom) to a foreign telecom company or a consortium of companies in partnership with major foreign telecom operator by early 2006. The government issued the tender in this regard on 29 August 2005. A total of 13 companies have been selected for this deal, which is expected to be finalised for an amount of USD 1.7 billion. The companies include Telefonica, France Telecom, Telecom Italia, Portugal Telecom, France's Bouygues Telecom, Bahrain's Batelco, and Etisalat of the UAE, T-Mobile, Mobile Telephone Networks, Saudi Oger, Saudi Telecom Company, Telecom Dig and Vivendi Universal. However, in December 2005, MTN confirmed its bid for a 35 per cent stake in Tunisie Télécom, while Bouygues and Telefonica pulled out of the bidding.

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    Future Outlook

    The mobile market in Tunisia is expected to grow at a rapid pace and exceed 80 percent penetration by 2009. The reason for the country's mobile penetration reaching such high levels is primarily its small population base of approximately 9 million. The penetration rate already reached 44.4 percent at end-June 2005.

    An indication of the progress made by the sector in the past is the increase in subscriber base at a CAGR of 144 percent from 1999 to 2004, resulting in a subscriber base of more than 3.5 million.

    The growth is expected to continue at the same momentum in the coming years due to factors such as the following:

  • Demand for mobile services, and particularly non-voice value added services, coupled with the introduction of faster services, such as GPRS, EDGE and 3G.
  • Proposed privatisation of Tunisie Telecom, which would facilitate the presence of more leading foreign companies in the market and increased liberalisation in the mobile market.

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